Any unbiased partaker in Oyo State politics will tell you Governor Seyi Makinde won the last gubernatorial election in Oyo State by popular vote. The margin of the victory is a testament of the support he enjoyed across the state. With 27 out of 32 seats in the Oyo State House of Assembly, PDP certainly bossed that election.
To say PDP rigged itself to victory is absolute nonsense. At both the federal and state levels at the time of the election, APC was the ruling party. They had party members in all important positions up to the grassroots. In terms of logistics, no party held a candle to them. They had all security forces on their side and INEC dared not collude with the opposition in the circumstances. While INEC may be hamstrung to help the ruling party, they certainly can’t aid and abet an opposition party. So, PDP won fair and square.
The governorship election result has gone under the scrutiny of the Election Petitions Tribunal and the Court of Appeal. Both affirmed Seyi Makinde’s victory but a foray into evidence evaluation leaves question marks on the fairness of the judgment of the election tribunal. This has given APC supporters a shot in the arm. They believe that aspect of the judgement of the Court of Appeal leaves a window of opportunity for the APC to have another bite at the cherry through the medium of a re-run.
To say it’s a hopeless case will be to underestimate the Nigerian factor in the dispensation of justice. Apparently there’s no basis for any re-run but in Nigeria, YOU NEVER KNOW.
In all honesty, on performance basis, I think Seyi Makinde has injected a breath of fresh air to the polity. His modesty and equanimity are endearing. He is paying workers’ salaries in manners appealing to the working population in the state. He seems to be getting it right. For an officious bystander like me, it will be cruel to upset the applecart.
To say I’m a neutral will be a voyage into dishonesty. My party, ADC, joined others to lend support to Seyi Makinde. Without the obvious favourable legal angle, I would still have rooted for him to win at the Supreme Court.
In the unlikely event that a re-run is ordered however, Governor Seyi Makinde will find it extremely difficult to win again at the polls. The APC will throw in everything including the kitchen sink into the contest. I foresee all APC governors in Nigeria camping in Oyo State for the election. Soldiers will be here to intimidate people like they did in the re-run in Osun. The APC will win the vote buying contest hands down like they did in Ekiti and Kogi.
What should count for Governor Seyi Makinde is the same kind of popular support he got in March. He will still count on the coalition that gave him the edge in the last election. The question is: will they still be there for him?
In International law, there’s a phrase “pacta sunt savanda” (Agreement must be kept). It’s apparent that the agreement Gov Makinde struck with coalition partners has broken down irretrievably. It appears, for instance, that the governorship candidate of my own party, Senator Olufemi Lanlehin, has been shabbily treated and has moved on. There are disgruntlements even in the ranks of the core PDP that may make the road to a successful re-run difficult.
This takes me to the need to call on Governor Makinde to see a big test ahead, regardless of the outcome of the Supreme Court verdict. If he wins, he would still need people who have been let down for the next election. There won’t be any coalition when the earlier one was treated with breaches. If he lost (God forbid it please), how on earth can he have the courage to approach the same people for help?
Head or tail, Governor Seyi Makinde should work harder on building a political base with people who gave everything to make his being governor possible. People who are not politicians will hold the view that the coalition just wanted to share positions and derail the governor’s good start. In the grand scheme of things, all around the world, that is simply how politics and governance merge into each other.
On a personal level, I just want the governor to succeed. I won’t take any form of appointment from his administration if offered one. I’m committing myself to further personal developments. The point is just that he has a long road to travel in order to win back the backing of the very same people who propelled him to victory whether sooner (a re-run) or later (2023).
Once again, God, please forbid a re-run in Oyo State.
